Toyota FT-86 and Subaru BRZ coupes finally revealed

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It's been a long time coming. Toyota and Subaru have announced that they'll be showing their co-developed Toyota FT-86 and Subaru BRZ sports coupes at the Tokyo motor show next month. Finally.

They go on display ahead of their UK launches next summer, and, if the numbers come correct, we reckon they may well salvage both companies' currently rather dull images.

Both get a Subaru-derived flat-four engine and six-speed manual ‘box, with the option of a six-speed auto. Though ticking that one would be unbridled heresy. Output differs between the marques - the Scooby BRZ gets "less than 300bhp" while the FT-86 dangles around the 200bhp mark.

Underneath, they'll be identical, both getting limited-slip differentials and independent suspension. On the outside, they'll be differentiated by grills, badges and wheels.

The FT-86 especially is designed to appeal to the drifters - the stability control system even allows a dab of sideways before it tells you off. It'll be lithe, too - Toyota says it's 200kg lighter than a VW Scirocco (around 1100kg). It gets some trick suspension refinements, too - top-spec dampers and Euro-biased handling. Price? Around £20,000. Which seems very reasonable.

Details on the Subaru are a bit hazier. But we do know that it won't be four-wheel drive and will be a touch dearer - around £25,000, though no numbers have been confirmed - on account of the extra 100-odd bhp.

Both sound pretty promising. And we've been waiting a quite a while... But which would you buy, TopGear.commers?

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NEW AUTOMOBILE, Has CNG's Time Finally Come?

It's cheap, relatively green, and commercial fleet managers like it, but natural gas hasn't caught on as a passenger cars fuel in the U.S. as it has in other parts of the world. That could be changing, though. While some analysts voice doubt about widespread popular adoption of natural gas passenger cars, others in the fuel and auto industry say that growing concerns about carbon emissions and energy security can make this the decade of natural gas. Richard Kolodziej, president of NGVAmerica, the trade and lobbying group for the natural gas vehicle industry, maintains that the question isn't "if" but "when."
For now, Honda remains the only company making factory produced natural gas cars for the U.S. market. And it sells only about 1,200 of is Civic GX model (top) annually, many to fleet operators. That’s far below the annual demand threshold of 10,000 to 15,000 models that U.S. automakers like to see before ramping up for production of a new model. One stumbling block is that natural gas conversions are expensive. The factory-built Honda costs almost $7,000 more than its gasoline counterpart, and aftermarket conversions can easily add $10,000 or more to the price of a new vehicle.
Interest Rising
But a variety of factors have reignited interest in natural gas as a passenger vehicle fuel, including rising gasoline prices and new studies showing the U.S. has large reserves. One potential drawback is that most exist in difficult to develop conditions, and controversy exists about the environmental impact of the most popular recovery method. Known as fracking, it involves injecting chemicals and steam underground to fracture the rock that taps the gas. Opponents fear the process endangers underground drinking water supplies. Still, with big states like Ohio and Pennsylvania working hard to exploit their natural gas deposits, there seems to be consensus that natural gas fuel is here to stay.
The governor of Ohio recently called on the governors of Indiana, Michigan and Pennsylvania to join him in an initiative to replace their states’ fleet vehicles – a total of 41,000 cars and trucks – with natural gas models over time. That alone would represent a 36 percent increase in the number of compressed natural gas vehicles on the road today. A recent survey of 1,000 consumers by America’s Research Group found that 11-14 percent of respondents, depending on the region, were interested in the idea of natural-gas vehicles. But of the people who loved the idea, 75 percent said they were worried about how to find natural gas fuel, said ARG Chairman Britt Beemer.
Few And Far Between
At the end of 2010 there were only 1,000 natural-gas filling stations in the U.S, compared to about 159,000 public retail gasoline stations. Natural-gas producers and distributors, businesses and state and local governments a all have stepped up to try to solve the problem, motivated by the desire to make money, save money, and meet federal and state clean car mandates. While the focus largely has been on natural gas-powered commercial trucks and vans, industry insiders say the construction of more stations for these larger vehicles ultimately will open the market for natural-gas passenger vehicles.
Chesapeake Energy Corp., one of the nation's largest natural gas producers, announced in July that it had formed a subsidiary to help transform the U.S. transportation fuel market by pumping at least $1 billion into investments to boost demand for natural gas over the next decade. A national fueling network would cost $1.5- to $2-billion. Installing modern CNG fueling equipment at an already existing retail site generally costs about $500,000, while a new station for commercial trucks that use liquefied natural gas (LNG) costs appropriately $1.5 million, said Chesapeake development director Taylor Shinn. Chesapeake's first investment, $150 million, is being directed to Clean Energy Fuels Corp., a Seal Beach, Calif. company launched by natural-gas proponent T. Boone Pickens. The funds from Chesapeake will finance about 150 LNG fueling stations (below) at commercial truck stops and all will be designed for installation of CNG pumps to serve passenger vehicles as the demand develops.

Potential, But...
“The next five years are going to be very telling.” said Tim Carmichael, president of the California Natural Gas Vehicle Coalition, a trade group that promotes natural gas as a transportation fuel. He expects that at least one U.S. automaker will bring a CNG passenger car into the market to compete with Honda by the end of 2012. But that's not sufficient to persuade him that we'll eventually see a proliferation on America's roadways. "I think there's tremendous potential, we just don't know if that potential is going to be realized," he said. Pike Research predicted earlier this year that annual CNG passenger vehicle sales would hit only about 3,000 by 2016. Pike analyst Dave Hurst cited the cost of the vehicles, the big lead hybrids have in the market, and the improving fuel efficiency of gasoline and diesel engines as reasons CNG cars will be “a hard sell.”
It hasn't been so difficult in some other countries. Worldwide, almost 12.7 million NGVs were roaming the roads by the end of last year, an 11.6 percent jump over the year before, according to the International Association for Natural Gas Vehicles. In the U.S., there were just 112,000 - a scant 1 percent rise from 2009. "This is the only fuel technology where the U.S. is behind the rest of the world in deployment," Carmichael said. In some countries where the use of natural gas for transportation is high, the government creates an incentive by setting the price of fuel, Kolodziej said.
Congress Holds Key
In the U.S., the federal government and many states have been considering ways to encourage consumers to buy cars that run on alternative fuels of one sort or another. About 250 bills have been introduced in state houses since January that would provide incentives for alternative fuel vehicles, said Kolodziej. Most of the measures include cars and trucks fueled by natural gas. A bill pending in Congress, the New Alternative Transportation to Give Americans Solutions (NATGAS) Act, would be a major stimulus for the U.S. market if it passes, he added. The bipartisan measure would provide tax credits over a five-year period to manufacturers and purchasers of natural gas vehicles and to developers of natural gas fueling stations
If passed -- and there are doubts, given the nation’s debt and budget woes -- it could cut in half the time it takes to recoup the higher cost of a CNG vehicle, Kolodziej said. Supporters say rejection of the Nat Gas Act wouldn't spell an end to things, given the momentum they see building. One example is the Drive Natural Gas Initiative, formed in April to play "matchmaker" between fleet operators who would like to convert to natural gas and natural gas fuel suppliers who’d like to supply them, said Kathryn Clay, its executive director.
Home Fueled
In one of the group's business models, a commercial fleet operator would agree to covert a certain percentage of its vehicles to natural gas and the fuel supplier would agree to build a local station and supply the fleet’s fuel at a reduced price. Other entities are using similar models to expand the natural gas refueling network in various parts of the U.S. Clay’s group also is taking on the issue of home refueling, something that can make buying a CNG car more appealing to consumers. The goal is to drive down the price of gassing up by increasing the number of companies that make home refueling devices.
Currently, the only option for most consumers is the wall-mounted Phill home natural gas pump (left) made by BRC FuelMaker, an Italian unit of Southern California-based Fuel Systems Solutions. The U.S. cost for the Phill, before installation, is about $4,500. With competition, Clay said, the cost for a home refueling device could eventually shrink to $1,500 to $2,000. The home pump might make sense to a lot of commuters at that price because it can cut the cost of natural gas fuel by 50-60 percent form the price at retail pumps. Clay said 11 companies that make natural gas compressors have voiced interest in entering the home CNG pump market.
Increasing Production
The low price of CNG compared to gasoline or diesel fuel is a major selling point for natural gas vehicles. But the cost of converting a light duty car or truck to CNG can be a big deterrent. Honda's nearly $7,000 premium for the CNG Civic covers the increased cost of the car’s pressurized fuel system and extensive engine modifications required by the higher compression demanded by CNG’s higher octane content. The Civic and other dedicated natural gas vehicles built by aftermarket conversion companies qualify for various federal and local incentives, which can help offset the cost, but the jury’s out on how long lawmakers will continue funding them. Without incentives, fuel savings alone generally won’t recover the extra cost of a CNG vehicle over the 5-7 years that most people keep a car. With natural gas fuel retailing at $1.90 a gallon and gasoline at $3.65, the average consumer driving 15,000 miles a year in a 30-mpg natural gas car would save only about $875 a year. Still, with gasoline prices on the rise over the past year and all the news about new natural gas reserves, Honda earlier this year said it would double production of the Civic CNG model to 2,000 units for the 2012 model year and will go higher if demand develops.
"We wouldn't be expanding sales if we didn't see a future in it," said Honda spokeswoman Jessica Fini. The redesigned 2012 model will carry a new, more market-savvy name -- Civic Natural Gas, a 10 percent increase in fuel economy to 31 mpg (combined) and a base price of $26,155 -- $27,655 with navigation system. This is the first time Honda has offered a navigation system with the natural gas model, which also will be available for the first time with Bluetooth connectivity and a premium stereo. Further, instead of selling in only four states, as has been the case, the 2012 cars – set to go on sale in September -will be rolled out in 38 states over the next year.

Testing The Waters
Toyota, the leader in the U.S. hybrid market, built and marketed a handful of natural gas Camrys to fleet operators in Southern California in 2000 and 2001, developing a unique rear suspension for them to facilitate their cylindrical fuel tanks, said Bill Reinert, national manager of Toyota's advanced technology group. But only about 300 were built ad sold before Toyota decided to push its hybrid technology instead. Still, the idea of using CNG fuel hasn’t ben abandoned at Toyota, which has shown a CNG-electric Camry hybrid concept car at trade shows in recent years.
While General Motors, Ford and Chrysler haven't jumped into the natural-gas passenger car market, all three made CNG trucks and vans until 1998, mainly for fleet buyers and to meet government clean car mandates. They stopped production after changing emissions rules and market conditions began favoring hybrids and flex-fuel vehicles that run on a mixture of gasoline and ethanol. But Ford and General Motors this year have both begun manufacturing some vehicles, aimed at fleet buyers, that are ready for conversion to natural gas. The two companies also make natural gas vehicles for use in other countries.
In the U.S., Ford has full size and light duty vans and heavy-duty pickup trucks that can be converted, and plans more “in the near future," a company spokesman said. General Motors announced this summer it has reached agreement with Canadian company Westport Innovations Inc. to develop natural-gas engine components for GM’s light-duty vehicles. Westport also this week announced a new bi-fuel conversion system for Ford’s heavy-duty F-250 and F-350 pickups. Chrysler Group also has voiced interest in adding CNG options to some vehicles in its lineup. One possibility would be CNG powertrains for the Ram truck. Chrysler's Italian parent company, Fiat, is the world's largest maker of natural gas vehicles. "The technology is very clearly transferable between Europe and the U.S., said Bob Lee, a Chrysler executive who handles engine and propulsion systems.
The recently announced Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards expected to be approved for the 2017-2025 period add another incentive for increased use of natural gas as a fuel, Lee said. The White House and U.S. automakers agreed on a proposal for requiring a fleet average of 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025 in order to cut oil use and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. While CNG doesn’t offer a big improvement in fuel economy over gasoline or diesel, it has 25-30 percent less carbon content than those fuels and can help satisfy the new requirements. "I don't think it will be even five years before you'll see the increase in offerings in CNG," Lee said.

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If Saab Finally Done, End Began 20 Years Ago

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By AutoObserver Staff September 14, 2011

In the 64 years since aircraft maker Saab started developing cars, it has designed and built just 12 entirely new models – and four of those have been somewhat dubious derivations of other manufacturers’ vehicles. Even for a brand whose models have been notable for their (often unplanned) longevity, that kind of product turnover simply hasn’t been enough to sustain a car company in the modern consumer age. This single factor of not enough fresh and compelling cars often enough inevitably assured Saab’s demise. As it has been known for six decades, Saab appears to be finally finished. The company’s labor unions this week called for Saab’s bankruptcy in order to secure their workers’ layoff benefits. The only remaining hope was yet another convoluted scheme to pull yet another clearly insufficient amount of money from an ambitious but overreaching Chinese investor.

Lack of product turnover led to another hallmark Saab deficiency: for at least the past couple of decades, the company has been striving – and failing – to sell usefully more than 130,000 vehicles per year, a number that for many mainstream manufacturers would not keep a single model line profitable, much less an entire assembly plant and certainly not the entire company. Yet despite all this, major efforts were made to save and reinvigorate Saab for much of the past 20 years. There were good reasons: even today, it’s easy to see the market potential held by this distinct Swedish brand. Saab was a storied, premium European marque with a reputation for innovation, unusual styling, safety and, if the advertising puffery was to be believed, a strong link with the glamour of jet-fighter engineering.

Moreover, awareness of Saab, despite annual sales amounting to no more than a few days’ worth of production for Toyota Motor Corp., was vigorous in plenty of global markets that mattered. In 1989, when General Motors bought Saab on the rebound from its failure to get hitched with Jaguar, this was a marque with serious potential, a premium under-exploited global brand – a weapon GM had previously been without – acquired at just the moment when the flight to upscale badges like BMW, Lexus and Audi was gaining real momentum.

Exponential Potential
Hard as it is to remember, Saab itself enjoyed a period of fruitful U.S. expansion; it was the fastest-growing luxury brand between 1982 and 1986 (the years just before the Japanese automakers pulled the trigger on their own formidable luxury-car divisions). General Motors’ 1990 buy-in bought a 50-percent stake of Saab, the other half owned by Swedish conglomerate Investor AB. There were several fleeting moments of well-directed effort, but GM’s efforts to reinvigorate and expand Saab, never mind profitably exploit it, repeatedly stalled. To outsiders, at least, it appeared neither Saab owner was ready to commit the really big investment needed to thoroughly rejuvenate the company.

In 2000, GM bought out Investor and by that time, Saab had already begun to see a succession of short-term, GM-appointed chiefs. Two in particular – Dave Herman, and later, Bob Hendry, who came on in 1996 – started good things but never stayed long enough to complete the rejuvenation. The launch of the first all-new car under GM co-ownership, the 1993 900, was a major disappointment. Good that it looked similar to the outgoing 900. But based on a repurposed Opel Vectra platform, the new-generation 900 lacked the quirky character, debuted virtually no innovations, was off-the-pace compared even with older rivals and endured distressing quality problems.

Shark-Jumping Years
After the 900 launch, sales in the U.S. faltered, contributing to the company’s failure to turn a profit for much of the 1990s through to 2009. Yet sales rose again as the new century started, floating around the 130,000 mark and reaching an all-time high in 2003 of almost 132,000 units, a record achieved with a new, second-generation 900 (now using the 9-3 nomenclature) and a 9-5 flagship that by Saab standards, was relatively young at five years old. What nobody could know at the time was that the 9-5 was not even halfway through its life at this point. Both GM and Saab fumbled this crucial car’s replacement, at first developing a new version using a platform co-developed with Fiat’s premium Alfa Romeo and Lancia brands. But the collaboration eventually was abandoned, causing years of delay.

The resultant dearth of new Saabs spawned some of the stranger automotive mutants of the new century, as GM scurried to give the U.S. dealer network something fresh to sell. First up was 2004’s appallingly misconceived 9-2X, the Subaru Impreza wagon-based Saab that quickly became known as the Saabaru, and almost equally quickly disappeared from view after two seasons and 10,346 sales. It was mostly killed by buyer apathy, but also by GM’s divestment of its Subaru ownership stake, which severed the links between the companies. That development also killed a potentially more promising project that had Saab slated to get its own version of Subaru’s Tribeca crossover.

Instead, the Swedes eventually got the 9-7X (concept sketch, above), a Chevy Trailblazer mutant (speedily relabelled the Trollblazer) that flaunted a Saab dashboard and grille and a disconnection from the essence of the brand more shocking than the Saabaru’s. Still, this one survived until 2009. The celebrated Bob Lutz had a hand in all these cars, despite openly confessing to having little understanding of or empathy for Saab, a surprise given his understanding and experience with the European auto aesthetic and usually trusty product touch. None of these desperate enterprises did the brand much good, of course. Neither did the decision to spawn a Cadillac from Saab’s aged 9-3, a plan that produced a fine subject for an automotive trivia question: Which Cadillac was never sold in its home market, was built in Sweden and available with a Fiat diesel engine? Answer: The BLS, already fading from memories faster than yesterday’s breakfast. The idea was to give Cadillac a BMW 3-Series contender and Saab’s Trollhattan plant more to do, but the BLS was neither a threat to BMW nor the cause of much overtime.

Plenty Of Concept
As all these abuses of the brand occurred, the company wowed auto-show audiences with a succession of intriguing concept cars, a couple of which might have helped turned things around had GM had the nerve to produce them. First was the 2001 9-X, a Kamm-tailed hatchback that appeared sexy, unusual and very Saab, followed by the 9-3X crossover coupe a year later that was even more desirable. At that point, there was bold GM talk of an aggressive 5-year plan and sales of 250,000 vehicles. Then came the dramatic and much-admired Aero X concept (above) in 2006. There was, it seemed, no shortage of design talent for Saab, but a frustrating lack of the means to realise its potential – and the 250,000 annual sales that might, finally, have produced a self-sustaining business.

GM persisted however, having earlier elected to subsume Saab’s operations into the wider Opel organization, so that the Trollhattan plant in Sweden became another GM Europe manufacturing operation, while engineering and styling for new models was largely executed at Opel’s Russelsheim headquarters. The aim was to reduce costs – although an attempt to preserve Saab’s creative essence saw the establishment of a brand center in the company’s hometown of Trollhattan in 2004. How that would have worked in the long-term we’ll never know, because GM had entered stormy waters by 2008 and soon concluded one distraction it no longer needed was Saab.

With Saab’s 2010 sale to Spyker Cars NV, a great opportunity for GM went to waste – and with it, any chance of a viable future for Saab. Despite having successfully rejuvenated Cadillac with a clear mission, considerable resolve and substantial cash, GM ignored the lessons of its own enterprise. Or those to be found in the growth of Audi, BMW and Lexus. The General failed to apply a plan of the scope, funding or vision necessary to launch Saab to the next stage of an expansion that ought to have seen it achieving annual sales of at least 300,000 units. And over the two decades that GM prevaricated, Saab’s brand unquestionably suffered. While some models met with limited success, no car launched during GM’s tenure truly improved Saab in terms of its brand positioning or cemented its distinctive flavor in the way that BMW, Audi, Mercedes and Lexus have done as they’ve developed and grown.

Did Anybody Get It?
Endless discussions inside Saab, GM and in the wider world, attempted to distill the essence and substance of Saab, to explain why it had potential many multiples greater than its actual sales. There was, for instance, no question that awareness of the marque was far higher than its sales footprint would suggest. But that awareness never translated to purchase consideration, and as the revered 92, 93, 96, 99 and 900 models that created that substance grew more distant, the task of working out what Saab actually stood for became ever harder. It was a substance that grew out of the original 92/93 and 96, the robust, aerodynamic-looking, beetle-backed 2-door that was indeed a Swedish take on VW’s “people’s car” concept, and the more sophisticated and subtly individual 99 of 1967. That car would enjoy an extraordinarily long life, bowing out 26 years later, stretched and rebadged as the 900. Like the 96, the 99 was original enough to contribute substantially to the Saab legend.

But everything since – with the possible exception of the recently launched and short-lived (and still Opel-based) 9-5 – has fallen short of that indefinable character and brand essence that continuously strengthens and redefines a marque and sustains its desirability. The blame for Saab’s failure is in large part at GM’s doorstep, though Trollhattan made its own contributions and tiny-but-enthusiastic Spyker’s attempts to successfully rescue were it at best an outside chance. So another famous car brand, and a business opportunity with potential, winks out.

Saab Timeline
1946 - Svenska Aeroplan Aktiebolaget begins development of a small passenger car immediately after WW2
1947 - prototype Saab 92 revealed to Swedish press
1949 - Saab 92 enter series production
1950 - first 92s delivered
1955-68 - Saab’s motorsport successes build the name, with wins in two wins in the Monte Carlo rally, three RAC rally wins in the UK, and a 1956 victory in the Great American Mountain Rally.
1955 - Saab 93, an upgraded, 92, is launched
1956 - Saab 92 gets a three cylinder two-stroke, becomes 93
1956 - Saab Motors Inc in the US is formed
1956 - Sonett 1 sports car – only 6 built
1959 - 95 station wagon launched
1960 - Saab 96 launched, a heavily facelifted version of the 93
1963 - Saab pioneers diagonally-split dual circuit brakes
1966 - Ford supplies Saab with four-stroke V4 for 96
1966 - Sonett II coupe launched, 1890 built
1967 - the larger Saab 99 is launched, with front-wheel drive and a 1709cc British Triumph engine.
1968 - Saab merges with Scania-Vabis, a successful truck-maker, to form Saab-Scania AB, leading to the creation of an automotive division.
1969 - Saab introduces heated seats and headlamps wired through the ignition
1970 - headlamp wipers and washers are launched
1970 - Sonett III sports coupe launched
1972 - Saab develops side impact door beams
1973 - three door Combi 99 introduced
1977 - 99 Turbo introduced, boosting performance and sales
1978 - five door 99 launched
1978 - 99 is lengthened, facelifted and relaunched as 900
1980 - production of the 96 ends
1984 - 175bhp 900 Turbo 16S launched, the first turbo engine with 16 valves
1984 - all-new 9000 launched – it’s only the third all-new model in Saab’s 37 year history.
1986 - 900 Convertible launched
1990 - General Motors buys a 50percent stake from Saab-Scania for $600 million
1991 - Saab is first to introduce CFC-free air conditioning
1991 - Trionic engine management system. In smoggy city centres, Saab 9000 Trionic’s exhaust exhales cleaner air than car ingests
1992 - GM management has reduced the build time of a Saab by 50percent, to 50 hours.
1993 - new 900 launched, based on GM’s Opel Vectra platform
1993 - night panel dashboard, blacking out everything except the speedometer
1994 - Saab turns a profit
1995 - the profit turns to losses
1996 - Saab is first with anti-whiplash active head-restraint
1997 - Saab 9-5 launched, replacing the 9000
2000 - GM buys out the remaining shares in Saab for $125 million
2001 - widely admired Saab 9-X concept unveiled at Frankfurt auto show
2002 - Saab reveals another highly acclaimed concept car, the 9-3X
2002 - an all-new 9-3 is announced
2003 - 48,000 Saabs are sold in the US, a record, and total global sales are the highest ever at 131,706
2004 - GM announces the establishment of a Saab brand center at Trollhattan, following the subsuming of the company into the wider GM Europe
2005 - 9-3 SportCombi (a station wagon) is announced
2006 - the Aero X concept car is unveiled, to considerable acclaim
2006 - Saab’s all-time sale record of 133,167 units is achieved. The marque celebrates its 60th year
2008 - the 9-4X Biopower concept is revealed at the Detroit auto show
2008 - GM announces that Saab’s future is ‘under review’ in December
2009 - February, Saab files for bankruptcy protection under a Swedish court process
2009 - the 9-3X, an all-wheel drive 9-3 wagon, appears at the Geneva auto show
2009 - June, Swedish supercar maker Koenigsegg announces that it will buy Saab
2009 - September – the new 9-5 is premiered at the Frankfurt auto show
2009 - November, Koenigsegg announces that it cannot go through with the deal
2010 - GM sells Saab to Victor Muller’s Spyker for $74 million, though not before almost closing it.
2011 - 9-4X crossover launched. Built by GM, it’s U.S.-only model

AutoObserver Staff:  Story and reporting by Contributor Richard Bremner.

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