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Showing posts with label Moving. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Moving. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Why GM Will Win By Moving Electrification In-House

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AppId is over the quota
GM's new battery pack, built in Brownstone, Michigan, represents the first time a manufacturer has built a lithium-ion battery pack in-house (GM).

Whereas most people would consider the company's 2009 bankruptcy as the pivotal turning point in the contemporary history of General Motors, I'm willing put my bet behind the 2007 launch of the Chevy Volt extended-range electric car.

No other product from GM had such a systemic effect within the corporation, shifting nearly overnight the idea of what's important for the company and its culture.

And while some of the motivation behind the car's debut might have been founded in a vacuous effort to rebrand the company's image, the Volt was an inherently positive move for the big company. Now, roughly a year before the car will go on sale, GM is making another move that might be as important as the Volt itself: it plans on building most, if not all, of the guts of the hybrid and electric systems within its own facility.

Boring? Hardly. When manufacturers made moves over the past decade to produce more and more electric vehicles, the one aspect of the strategy that I never understood was why they'd all want to purchase the important aspects of the technology -- batteries and electric motors -- from the same suppliers. This was the equivalent of moving to a PC computer model: components would be shared and commoditized, therefore making the real unique selling proposition of any product the way it's designed or the way it's serviced.

Since carmakers (via their franchised dealership model) have historically underwhelming customer service, this spelled out a future that hinged upon a car's styling alone. This seemed limiting and, in the long run, a curious business strategy.

Thankfully a few automakers are realizing the importance of keeping the secret sauce of electrification within their four walls. Honda and Toyota have built their own electric motors, but now the domestics are starting to move in-house and GM is farthest along on its path.

Helped in no small part by a $105 million grant from the U.S. Department of Energy, GM made a move last week to retool a transmission plant in Maryland to make the motors for the company's next generation of electric systems. The decision will create 200 jobs -- enough to stir local politicians in the Baltimore area to applaud the move -- but the larger impact of the decision will play out in the years to come.

This week I had the opportunity to speak with GM's Pete Savagian, director of the electric motors, who sees the move as necessary as the company tries to get the costs of the new systems down to something that everyone will be able to afford.

"When we look at our future we see a lot of electric motors in our cars," said Savagian. "And those electric motors have a great bearing on the affordability of the car, the mass of the car, the smoothness of the car, [the] efficiency of the car. So we think the time is right to expand our footprint beyond just the engineering of electric motors, but now into the manufacturing."

Listen to the full conversation with Savagian below:


Batteries Hold The Power, Literally
Beyond the motors, the biggest move could be what GM is doing with batteries. In January the company rolled its first battery pack down the assembly line of their new facility in Michigan, a watershed moment not only for GM but for the rest of the industry. It was the first time a carmaker manufactured its own lithium-ion battery pack.

By building their own motors and batteries, GM can match or excel the work Toyota (and to a lesser degree, Honda) has done in hybrids.

In an electrified world, the battery and the electric motor becomes the secret sauce: where we once considered horsepower or even, more recently, miles per gallon to be important metrics, the future will be shaped by costs per mile and a vehicle's range. In other words: how much does it cost and how far does it go?

Especially when the infrastructure for electric "fueling" stations is a decade or more away, the amount of energy a driver can store inside the vehicle (within a battery) will be paramount. Having juice in your battery will be as important as having a bottle of water in the desert.

With few places to stop and fuel, the first generation of true electric vehicle drivers will learn to love the cars that get them the most miles for their volts.

The company that can display leadership in this regard will be the front-runner in the next era. So far it appears GM has a first step on everyone else.



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Sunday, October 9, 2011

Incentives Bulge To Keep Big Pickups Moving

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AppId is over the quota
By Bill Visnic October 6, 2011

Pickup Incet Bulge lede.jpg

Auto-industry discussions following Monday’s release of September sales figures focused on sales of full-size pickups, which are up by about 7 percent for the year and soared to double-digit increases compared with the year-ago September. But winning those gains likely was expensive. In an analysis of full-size pickup sales trends, data show that based on Edmunds.com's proprietary True Cost of Incentives (TCI) metric, domestic automakers have piled on incentives in recent months to boost full-size pickups sales in a shaky economy.

From a low that generally occurred around April, Ford Motor Co., General Motors Co. and the Chrysler Group LLC have markedly hiked incentive spending on full-size pickups. In April, the average TCI for the full-size pickup category – which also includes the almost statistically insignificant Toyota Tundra, Nissan Titan and Honda Ridgeline – was $3,261 per vehicle. At the end of September, the average incentive for full-size pickups ballooned by more than 30 percent to $4,281 per vehicle.

One reason incentives are on the rise could be concern over inventories as the industry heads into the final quarter of the year, with October and November traditionally slow sales months. One automaker analyst notes that the measure of inventory as a portion of total industry pickup sales is running at reasonably acceptable levels. At the end of September, full-size pickup inventory for the entire industry was about 439,000 units, about three times current monthly sales, which this analyst said is an entirely comfortable ratio – and well below earlier points. In April, when incentives had reached a low, the inventory-to-sales ratio was 3.86 to one. A year ago in August 2010, the ratio was 3.39 to one. Based on that measure, current pickup inventories appear far from dangerous.

AO110929 lrg trck DTT TCI Apr Aug 11.jpgBut full-size pickups are taking longer to sell than earlier this year, before world-economy worries began anew. In Edmunds.com’s Days To Turn (DTT) metric, the measure of how long it takes to sell a vehicle once it reaches the dealer, full-size pickups generally have been taking longer to sell. Ford’s F-150 (top) went from a DTT of 44 in April to 55 at the end of August. The Chrysler Group’s Ram 1500 went from a DTT of 82 in April to 110 at the end of August. For GM’s Chevrolet Silverado, DTT climbed from 55 in April to 75 at the end of August.

Inventory levels and slowing sales – despite increasing incentives – may trouble the industry moving into the year’s final quarter, particularly if the global financial future remains uncertain. General Motors, for one, has trimmed full-size pickup production several times this year, with the latest manufacturing cutback announced late last month. At the end of September, GM had 208,000 pickups in inventory for what it said is an 88-day supply. The figure has been pared from a days’ supply that exceeded 115 in mid-summer. It is generally believed the complexity of full-size trucks requires something more than the 60-day supply that has long been accepted as ideal for the broad market, but GM has been trying to whittle its stocks for much of the year and even the current 88 days’ supply likely is too high. Ford sources said full-size pickup inventory at end of September was in the low- to mid-60-days’ supply, but the company’s 298,000-strong truck inventory at the end of September still was nearly a full 20 percent higher than at the same time last year.

Month Now A Season
These demand-related metrics are complex and interrelated, but the one most directly affecting profitability is incentives. The cost of subsidized financing – an effective pickup-selling tool – costs automakers little at the moment because of historically low interest rates, yet still costs thousands. For customers not tempted by a subsidized-financing deal like zero-percent financing, the automakers also must offer the option of thousands of dollars in cash incentives. Pickup incentives always are expected to turn upward for at least one month in the fall, typically September or October, when what has been known as “Truck Month” kicks off, marking a barrage of incentive programs each automaker lays on, mostly in the attempt to clear inventories of vehicles from the outgoing model year. But now sales executives have taken a shine to the term “Truck Season” – reflecting the fact that the lavish incentive programs now start earlier and finish later, stretching well beyond the confines of a single month. The extension of the big-incentive programs to a “season” seems a vivid indicator that larger incentives, offered for a longer time, now are required to keep full-size pickups moving.

In reporting September sales earlier this week, Ford and GM executives downplayed the notion that full-size pickup incentives are rising, pointing mostly to the fact total industry incentive spending may have been down slightly in September. Sales for Ford’s F-Series pickups were up 14.7 percent compared with last September; GM’s Chevy Silverado was up 35.8 percent and Chrysler’s Ram sales boomed by 45 percent. Erich Merkle, U.S. sales analyst at Ford, said, “Year-over-year, we’re seeing some solid advances,” and suggested in a call with the media that September’s big increases in truck sales could reflect the high age of the in-use pickup fleet and still-unreleased pent-up demand from years of delayed purchasing due to the 2008-09 recession. But Merkle also did insinuate that certain “merchandising” efforts helped Ford’s overall September sales.

AO110929 lge trck ms Apr Aug 11.jpgWhatever the case, it is difficult not to correlate September’s engorged pickup sales figures to inflated incentives. According to Edmunds.com data, the TCI for Ford’s F-Series was $4,265 – a hefty spike from the F-Series’ $3,083 incentive in April. For the Chevrolet Silverado 1500, April TCI was $3,182 and the figure was a ripping $4,747 last month. For Chrysler’s Ram 1500, the incentives bulge went from $4,084 in April to $4,877 in September. Despite the domestic makers’ talk of ongoing efforts to align production with demand, September’s sizeable incentives figures on full-size pickup are similar to spending at the same time last year.

In a reversal of recent consumer orientation toward small cars, market share for full-size pickups improved from 10 percent in April to 12.3 percent in August. Don Johnson, General Motors Co. vice president of U.S. sales operations, told reporters this week some of the full-size pickups’ outsized September sales performance could be attributed to stabilizing gasoline prices and “stability in consumer confidence.” But it appears the market share – perhaps profitable, perhaps not – was bought largely with increased incentives. Johnson insisted GM has “no plans to go out and put more money on the hood,” of full-size pickups, but as “truck season” moves into October, if the stock market continues to gyrate and pickups continue to sit longer on dealer lots, it will be a test of automakers’ resolve to limit their money-on-the-hood urges.

Bill Visnic:  is an AutoObserver Senior Editor. Follow @AutoObserver on Twitter

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