Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Pike Says NG Sales Will Jump 70% By 2016

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AppId is over the quota
By Danny King September 15, 2011

Pike CNG Jump.jpg

Annual global sales of natural-gas-propelled vehicles will jump 68 percent to about 3.2 million vehicles in 2016 from about 1.9 million last year as more fleet owners look to cut petroleum dependency over the next few years, Pike Research said in a report released Wednesday. U.S. annual natural-gas vehicle sales will surge even faster, almost quadrupling to 33,000 vehicles in 2016 from about 8,400 in 2012, according to Pike Research. Among countries, India will overtake Iran as the world's largest user of natural-gas vehicles as governments push their bus fleets towards compressed natural gas (CNG), according to Pike Research Senior Analyst Dave Hurst. Iran has so far been the natural-gas vehicle leader, because the country makes more profit selling oil to foreign countries and using natural gas for fuel, Hurst told AutoObserver.

As a fuel, CNG burns cleaner than gasoline or ethanol, resulting in lower greenhouse-gas emissions. It doesn't provide a fuel economy boost over gasoline, however, and depending on how a vehicle's engine is set up, it can result in a drop in performance. But it is much cheaper than gasoline and reduces periodic engine maintenance, because it doesn't contain the impurities that leave deposits in a gasoline engine. Still, the U.S. will continue to account for a miniscule percentage of global natural-gas vehicles because of the large costs associated with building natural-gas stations. As of Sept. 1, there were 901 CNG stations and 45 liquefied natural gas (LNG) stations in the U.S., compared to about 2,600 propane stations, more than 2,400 E85 stations and almost 3,200 publicly accessible electric-vehicle charging stations, according to the U.S. Energy Department's Alternative Fuels and Advanced Vehicles Data Center (AFDC). There are about 125,000 conventional gas stations in the U.S.

Additionally, the only production CNG-powered car in the U.S. is the Honda Civic GX (above), which sells in minimal numbers. That car earlier this year was crowned the greenest vehicle sold in the U.S. for the eighth consecutive year by non-profit American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, beating out both the Nissan Leaf battery-electric vehicle and the Chevy Volt plug-in hybrid. Last week, Ford said that about 100 of its Transit Connect utility vehicles converted to run on CNG will be used as taxi cabs across Southern California. Dallas-based BAF Technologies is doing the conversions.

U.S. companies and governments will turn to natural gas in greater numbers as a way to cut both foreign-oil use and greenhouse-gas emissions, especially as air-quality regulations get more stringent. More than 90 percent of the U.S. natural-gas vehicles sold in 2016 will be commercial, according to Hurst. Additionally, in June, General Motors reached an agreement with Vancouver-based natural-gas engine maker Westport Innovations to develop natural-gas engine components for the automaker's light-duty vehicles. This indicates that GM is looking to expand its alternative-fueled engine development for personal use beyond electric-drive vehicles such as the Volt. Westport, which employs 15 people in Farmington Hills, Michigan, will open a new technical center in the state to house the people working with GM on CNG engine development.

Danny King:  is a frequent contributor to AutoObserver.com.

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